FightChoice Intelligence Report
Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan
https://fightchoice.app/events/fares-ziam-vs-tom-nolan-prediction-2026-06-06
Lightweight
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Jun 6, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Fares Ziam
Tom Nolan
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight
53.1%
46.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight
57.9%
42.1%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight
23.7%
76.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
53.1%
46.9%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight
58.4%
41.6%
Ensemble
52.4%
47.6%
Predicted Winner
Fares Ziam
52.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 2m53s (7m53s total)
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Fares Ziam | Tom Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 18-6 | 11-1 |
| Height | 6' 1" | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach | 75" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Age | 29 | 26 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Fares Ziam | Tom Nolan | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 12.8 | 21.3 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 52.5% | 45.4% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 42.9% | 26.7% | 33.0% |
| Sub attempts | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 76.5s | 48.8s | 48.9s |
| Knockdowns | 0.06 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 75.0% | 88.9% | 45.8% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 100.0% | 37.6% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -2 | 5 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 24 | 18 | — |
| head strike share | 64.4% | 50.2% | — |
| body strike share | 18.7% | 31.8% | — |
| leg strike share | 16.9% | 18.0% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 7.71 | 17.08 | 15.2 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.68 | 0.42 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.57 | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.72 | 0.32 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | No | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | Yes | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 61.1% | 50.0% | 46.5% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 33.3% | 37.5% | 27.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 27.8% | 12.5% | 18.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 66.7% | 100.0% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 70.2% | 77.3% | — |
| clinch strike share | 12.4% | 16.5% | — |
| ground strike share | 17.4% | 6.3% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 12:14 | 9:00 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,556.8 | 1,563.8 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.266 | 0.132 | 0.069 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak | — |
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