FightChoice Intelligence Report

Hunter Smith
vs
Adam Livingston

Hunter Smith vs Adam Livingston

https://fightchoice.app/events/hunter-smith-vs-adam-livingston-prediction-2026-09-01

Lightweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Sep 1, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Hunter Smith Adam Livingston
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 46.8% 53.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 85.4% 14.6%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 62.8% 37.2%
Predicted Winner
Hunter Smith
62.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

67% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Hunter Smith 32.2% 20.3% 10.3% 62.8%
Adam Livingston 19.1% 12.0% 6.1% 37.2%
281 historical bouts 51.2% 32.4% 16.4% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 16% Submission 6:43 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Hunter Smith Adam Livingston
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Featherweight
Dooho Choi Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.5s
Daniel Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
39.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Women's Strawweight
Cory McKenna
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.3s
Elise Reed Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 19, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
Featherweight
Chan Sung Jung Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.4
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.6
Control time (Per Rnd)
122s
Dan Ige
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.6s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2021
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Flyweight
Kai Kara-France Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Cody Garbrandt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2021
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Heavyweight
Carlos Felipe Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
49%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Jake Collier
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43.3
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2007
UFC 76: Knockout
Lightweight
Jeremy Stephens Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
195.7s
Diego Saraiva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 1, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Featherweight
Hacran Dias
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
111s
Andre Fili Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
36.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
Lightweight
Lando Vannata Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
Yancy Medeiros
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
35.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 26, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
Women's Flyweight
Ji Yeon Kim
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
56.7
Strike accuracy
45.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Priscila Cachoeira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
46.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie
Women's Strawweight
Tecia Pennington Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
83.3s
Bec Rawlings
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
24.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 15, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
Featherweight
Timmy Cuamba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
50.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46s
Lucas Almeida Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Bantamweight
Kai Asakura Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Cameron Smotherman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2012
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Welterweight
Josh Koscheck Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.3s
Mike Pierce
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
53s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2010
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
Middleweight
Joe Doerksen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
Dan Miller Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
238.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Welterweight
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.3s
Aleksei Kunchenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
50.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Hunter Smith Adam Livingston
Height — 6' 2"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach — 71"
Stance — Orthodox
Age 27 25

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

No recorded UFC statistics for Hunter Smith.

Stat Hunter Smith Adam Livingston
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. — 0.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. — 0.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. — -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. — 1
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 1.374
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 0.747
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. — Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. — No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. — No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. — 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. — 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. — 0.006
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. — Early

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