FightChoice Intelligence Report

Brandon Holmes
vs
Modestino Rodrigues

Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues

https://fightchoice.app/events/brandon-holmes-vs-modestino-rodrigues-prediction-2026-09-01

Middleweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Sep 1, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 00:02 UTC

Model Breakdown
Brandon Holmes Modestino Rodrigues
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 72.2% 27.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 28% weight 67.2% 32.8%
Statistical Model β 27% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 63.7% 36.3%
Predicted Winner
Brandon Holmes
63.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
42% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Brandon Holmes Modestino Rodrigues
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Featherweight
 Zhu Kangjie
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
vs Rodrigo Vera Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 21, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Welterweight
 Neil Magny Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.8
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.2
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.4s
vs Kelvin Gastelum
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.8
Strike accuracy
40.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
86.6s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 21, 2023
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Welterweight
 Gilbert Burns Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
83.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
155s
vs Neil Magny
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2017
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Welterweight
 Neil Magny
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
vs Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
81.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
199s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2024
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Welterweight
 Randy Brown Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
34.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
111s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Welterweight
 Warlley Alves
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.5
Strike accuracy
27.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
128.5s
vs Randy Brown Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 4, 2017
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
Lightweight
 James Vick Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
30.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
vs Joe Duffy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2016
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Welterweight
 Johny Hendricks
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
85.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
199.3s
vs Neil Magny Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Featherweight
 Aalon Cruz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
vs Spike Carlyle Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
69%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2015
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
Women's Bantamweight
 Jessica Andrade
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
62.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
103.5s
vs Raquel Pennington Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
60.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.5s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Featherweight
 Dan Ige Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
vs Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
24.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Lightweight
 Bolaji Oki Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.3s
vs Timmy Cuamba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
35.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Bantamweight
 Andre Ewell Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
vs Irwin Rivera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 15, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze
Women's Flyweight
 Katlyn Cerminara Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
40.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.3s
vs Jennifer Maia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
30.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Women's Strawweight
 Amanda Ribas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
vs Tabatha Ricci Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
125.5s

Pairs shown across both columns have no corner match yet, so we do not assign them to a side.

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Brandon Holmes Modestino Rodrigues
Height 6' 2" —
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 74" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 29 22

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

No recorded UFC statistics for Modestino Rodrigues.

Stat Brandon Holmes Modestino Rodrigues
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 0.0% —
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 0.0% —
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 —
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 1 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.000 —
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.000 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% —
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% —
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% —
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% —
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1500 —
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.006 —
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early —

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