FightChoice Intelligence Report

Patrick Rivera
vs
Adam Darby

Patrick Rivera vs Adam Darby

https://fightchoice.app/events/patrick-rivera-vs-adam-darby-prediction-2026-09-01

Welterweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Sep 1, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Patrick Rivera Adam Darby
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 36.1% 63.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 28% weight 72.9% 27.1%
Statistical Model β 27% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 55.3% 44.7%
Predicted Winner
Patrick Rivera
55.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
63% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Patrick Rivera Adam Darby
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 1, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan
Featherweight
 Johnny Munoz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
62.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
194s
vs Nate Maness Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 23, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas
Flyweight
 Igor Severino
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.5
Takedown accuracy
55.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90s
vs Andre Lima Winner
Decision 2nd Rnd, 2m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
51.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2013
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
Middleweight
 Mark Munoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
67.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.7s
vs Tim Boetsch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 19, 2015
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
Middleweight
 CB Dollaway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
vs Nate Marquardt Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
59.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2017
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
Light Heavyweight
 Ed Herman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
58.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
55s
vs CB Dollaway Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
191s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 22, 2022
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
Welterweight
 Jack Della Maddalena Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43
Strike accuracy
53.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
vs Pete Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Women's Flyweight
 Victoria Leonardo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
21%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
vs Manon Fiorot Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.5
Strike accuracy
53%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.5s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 13, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
Women's Strawweight
 Yazmin Jauregui Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.7
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
vs Iasmin Lucindo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
36.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 24, 2021
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Welterweight
 Alex Oliveira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
vs Randy Brown Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
83s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2023
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Flyweight
 Brandon Moreno
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.4
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.2s
vs Alexandre Pantoja Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.8
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.2
Takedown accuracy
54.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101.2s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 11, 2026
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Welterweight
 Kevin Holland Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
81.7s
vs Randy Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2013
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Welterweight
 Jake Ellenberger Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
vs Nate Marquardt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
56.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
Welterweight
 Rodrigo Sezinando
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
27.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62s
vs Daniil Donchenko Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
Featherweight
 Kaan Ofli
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.5s
vs Mairon Santos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 9, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev
Heavyweight
 Jared Vanderaa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.3
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
vs Chase Sherman Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45.7
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s

Pairs shown across both columns have no corner match yet, so we do not assign them to a side.

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Patrick Rivera Adam Darby
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Age 34 27

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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