FightChoice Intelligence Report

Billy Ray Goff
vs
Ty Miller

Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller

https://fightchoice.app/events/billy-ray-goff-vs-ty-miller-prediction-2026-08-08

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Aug 8, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 7, 2026, 07:21 UTC

Model Breakdown
Billy Ray Goff Ty Miller
Statistical Model δ 62% weight 34.3% 65.7%
Statistical Model β 36% weight 32.8% 67.2%
Statistical Model ε 2% weight 44.1% 55.9%
Ensemble 24.3% 75.7%
Predicted Winner
Ty Miller
75.7%
Confidence

*New fighter, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)
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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to their career statistics as they stood going into the fight — 37 of them, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units, and far more than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Billy Ray Goff Ty Miller
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Women's Strawweight
Zhang Weili
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.6
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.4s
Rose Namajunas Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.2
Strike accuracy
51.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 24, 2021
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Women's Strawweight
Zhang Weili
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rose Namajunas Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m18s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2019
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Bantamweight
Petr Yan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
29.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Jimmie Rivera
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 15, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
Lightweight
Dan Hooker
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Edson Barboza Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m19s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 3, 2018
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
Middleweight
Jared Cannonier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m39s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
David Branch
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s

Tale of the Tape

Stat Billy Ray Goff Ty Miller
Career Record 9-4 7-0
Height 5' 10" 6' 2"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 72" 77"
Stance Switch Orthodox
Age 28 26

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Billy Ray Goff Ty Miller
Per Round Average
Strikes 31.4 59
Strike accuracy 46.6% 48.8%
Takedowns 0.2 0
Takedown accuracy 7.1% 0%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 62s 3s
Knockdowns 0.20 1
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 62.5% 100.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 4
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 8 4
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 49.0% 93.2%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.4% 6.8%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 30.6% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 22.8 36
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.4 0
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.34 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.48 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 25.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 25.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 91.7% 93.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.0% 5.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 1.3% 1.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:22 4:59
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,483.3 1,515.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.040 0.041
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Billy Ray Goff 24.3% 4.80 20.8% +16.8%
Ty Miller 75.7% 1.20 83.3% -9.2%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Billy Ray Goff Ty Miller
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +285 3.85 -526 1.19
DraftKings +380 4.80 -500 1.20
FanDuel +350 4.50 -455 1.22
BetMGM +375 4.75 -500 1.20
Bovada +370 4.70 -476 1.21
BetOnline +354 4.54 -455 1.22

Odds captured Aug 9, 2026, 12:02 AM

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