FightChoice Intelligence Report

Quentin Pasley
vs
Arlind Berisha

Quentin Pasley vs Arlind Berisha

https://fightchoice.app/events/quentin-pasley-vs-arlind-berisha-prediction-2026-09-08

Light Heavyweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5 · Sep 8, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 25, 2026, 06:02 UTC

Model Breakdown
Quentin Pasley Arlind Berisha
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 62.3% 37.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 69.0% 31.0%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 62.1% 37.9%
Predicted Winner
Quentin Pasley
62.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

64% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Quentin Pasley 31.4% 19.2% 11.5% 62.1%
Arlind Berisha 19.2% 11.7% 7.0% 37.9%
281 historical bouts 50.5% 31.0% 18.5% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 19% Submission 5:36 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Quentin Pasley Arlind Berisha
86% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 27, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Welterweight
Tahir Abdullayev Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64s
Jefferson Nascimento
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 21, 2020
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
Welterweight
Mike Perry
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
39.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
62.7s
Tim Means Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42.7
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 28, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94s
Jim Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2022
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40.5
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Bryan Barberena Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
73.5
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 25, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
80%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
66s
Alexander Gustafsson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2007
UFC 70: Nations Collide
Lightweight
Junior Assuncao Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
59.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
153.5s
David Lee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.5s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 18, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Bantamweight
Jamie Siraj
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
John Yannis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
61.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 13, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Women's Flyweight
Cynthia Calvillo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.5
Strike accuracy
30.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.5s
Andrea Lee Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
Middleweight
Maki Pitolo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
38.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
Darren Stewart Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
34.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
Middleweight
Tim Boetsch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dan Henderson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
80%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 23, 2013
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
Featherweight
Dennis Bermudez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
108s
Matt Grice
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
8.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 30, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Women's Strawweight
Virna Jandiroba Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
27.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
131.7s
Loopy Godinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman
Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
56.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.3s
Jeremy Stephens
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
111.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Women's Bantamweight
Julianna Pena Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.3s
Sara McMann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
147s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
56.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35.7s
Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Quentin Pasley Arlind Berisha
Weight 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Age — 25

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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