FightChoice Intelligence Report

Charles Johnson
vs
Jose Ochoa

Charles Johnson vs Jose Ochoa

https://fightchoice.app/events/charles-johnson-vs-jose-ochoa-prediction-2026-08-15

Flyweight

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 9, 2026, 06:01 UTC

Model Breakdown
Charles Johnson Jose Ochoa
Statistical Model δ 62% weight 90.5% 9.5%
Statistical Model β 36% weight 27.9% 72.1%
Statistical Model ε 2% weight 35.0% 65.0%
Ensemble 76.9% 23.1%
Predicted Winner
Charles Johnson
76.9%
Confidence
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to their career statistics as they stood going into the fight — 37 of them, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units, and far more than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Charles Johnson Jose Ochoa
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2024
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Lightweight
Damon Jackson
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Jim Miller Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m44s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 25, 2021
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Lightweight
Dan Hooker Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
141.3s
Nasrat Haqparast
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 21, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Middleweight
Jared Cannonier Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.2
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.4s
Kelvin Gastelum
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.8
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.2s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Lightweight
Dan Hooker Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
Jim Miller
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2015
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.7s
Demian Maia Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
81%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
218.7s

Tale of the Tape

Stat Charles Johnson Jose Ochoa
Career Record 18-9 9-2
Height 5' 9" 5' 7"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 70" 67"
Stance Switch Southpaw
Age 35 25

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Charles Johnson Jose Ochoa
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.7 23.6
Strike accuracy 49.8% 47%
Takedowns 0.2 0.1
Takedown accuracy 16.7% 25%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.3
Control time 17.7s 15.8s
Knockdowns 0.10 0.18
Knockdowns absorbed 0.08 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 73.0% 84.6%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 37 13
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 49.8% 45.6%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 29.4% 30.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.9% 24.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.55 13.64
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1.05 0.91
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.21 0.65
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.63 0.66
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 2 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 59.3% 90.9%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 25.9% 72.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 18.2%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 30.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 81.3% 88.8%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 14.2% 8.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.5% 3.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 12:45 12:33
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,519.1 1,503.9
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.409 0.101
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Charles Johnson 76.9% 4.00 25.0% +207.8%
Jose Ochoa 23.1% 1.26 79.4% -70.9%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 34% of bankroll on Charles Johnson at 3.60 (DraftKings) Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Charles Johnson Jose Ochoa
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +260 3.60 -476 1.21
DraftKings +300 4.00 -385 1.26
BetMGM +300 4.00 -400 1.25
Bovada +300 4.00 -385 1.26
BetOnline +306 4.06 -385 1.26

Odds captured Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM

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