UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues takes place on August 22, 2026, and FightChoice's AI ensemble has analyzed every bout on the card. We delve into our model's predictions, highlighting the key factors driving each outcome and the confidence level associated with each pick.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev
Our AI ensemble predicts Kennedy Nzechukwu to win this heavyweight clash with a 65% win probability. The primary drivers for this prediction are Nzechukwu's reach advantage over Gaziev and the assessment that Gaziev is past his prime. While some individual models favored Gaziev, our ensemble's calibration and weighting process led to the selection of Nzechukwu.
Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino
In this heavyweight matchup, our ensemble favors Vitor Petrino with a 56% win probability. Petrino's current win streak and higher overall win rate are significant factors. Although some models identified Spivac as having a higher skill rating, the combined analysis and weighting of various metrics point towards Petrino.
Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder
This light heavyweight bout sees our AI ensemble strongly favoring Reinier de Ridder with an 80% win probability. De Ridder's superior skill rating and his status as being less "past his prime" compared to Dolidze are the most influential factors. Despite Dolidze's notable wins, the ensemble's analysis consistently points to de Ridder.
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Our AI ensemble predicts Anthony Hernandez to emerge victorious with a high 77% win probability. Hernandez's significant advantages in takedowns landed and control time, coupled with key wins over JunYong Park and Edmen Shahbazyan, are the main drivers. While some models considered Rodrigues' Elo rating and win streak, the ensemble's analysis heavily favors Hernandez's grappling prowess.
Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey
For this middleweight contest, our ensemble predicts Wes Schultz to win with a 67% win probability. A key factor influencing this pick is Model Ο's strong emphasis on Schultz's past victory over McVey and his other recent wins. Despite a majority of individual models leaning towards McVey, our ensemble's calibration and weighting process resulted in the prediction for Schultz.
Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed
In the women's strawweight division, our AI ensemble confidently predicts Shanelle Dyer to win with an 80% win probability. Dyer's age advantage and superior skill rating are the most significant drivers for this prediction. The ensemble's analysis, particularly from models focusing on age and skill, strongly supports Dyer.
Kody Steele vs Gauge Young
Our AI ensemble favors Gauge Young in this lightweight bout with a 56% win probability. Young's superior skill rating and significant strike advantage are key indicators. Despite some individual models leaning towards Steele based on recent win rate, the combined prediction highlights Young's strengths.
Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves
Our AI ensemble predicts Carli Judice to win this women's strawweight fight with a 72% win probability. Judice's advantages in landed significant strikes and absorbed significant strikes, along with her notable wins, are the primary drivers. While some models favored Chaves based on skill ratings and takedown metrics, the calibrated ensemble leans towards Judice.
FightChoice AI Ensemble Predictions
Our AI ensemble provides a data-driven forecast for each bout at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues. For a comprehensive look at all our predictions and detailed reasoning, explore our dedicated prediction and forecast pages.